Strategies to reduce risk perception among grocery shoppers in the US: A survey study.

During the COVID-19 lockdown in the US, many businesses were shut down temporarily. Essential businesses, most prominently grocery stores, remained open to ensure access to food and household essentials. Grocery shopping presents increased potential for COVID-19 infection because customers and store employees are in proximity to each other. This study investigated shoppers' perceptions of COVID-19 infection risks and put them in context by comparing grocery shopping to other activities outside home, and examined whether a proactive preventive action by grocery stores influence shoppers' perceived risk of COVID-19 infection. Our data were obtained via an anonymous online survey distributed between April 2 and 10, 2020 to grocery shoppers in New York State (the most affected by the pandemic at the time of the study) and Washington State (the first affected by the pandemic). We found significant factors associated with high levels of risk perception on grocery shoppers. We identified some effective preventive actions that grocery stores implement to alleviate anxiety and risk perception. We found that people are generally more concerned about in-store grocery shopping relative to other out-of-home activities. Findings suggest that a strict policy requiring grocery store employees to use facemasks and gloves greatly reduced shoppers' perceived risk rating of infection of themselves by 37.5% and store employees by 51.2%. Preventive actions by customers and businesses are critical to reducing the unwitting transmission of COVID-19 as state governments prepare to reopen the economy and relax restrictions on activities outside home.

Consumer willingness to pay for plant-based foods produced using microbial applications to replace synthetic chemical inputs.

Analysis of consumer preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for sustainable foods produced using new agri-food technologies is required to enhance the uptake of innovations that accelerate the transition towards sustainable food systems. Consumers' willingness to buy new food products, with no or limited consumption experience, mainly depends on their food choice motivational orientations (promotion- vs prevention-orientation). The objective of this study was to elicit consumers' WTP for foods that are produced with microbial applications during the plant production phase with the aim to reduce the use of synthetic chemicals in crop farming, as well as to understand the associations of food choice motives, personal and socio-demographic factors with the WTP. We used contingent valuation to elicit consumers' WTP for three food products (wheat bread, consumer potatoes and tomato sauce) through online surveys. Data were collected from 291 consumers, primarily from Italy, Germany and the Netherlands. Descriptive statistics, latent variable modelling and logistic regression were used to analysis data. Results show that more than two-third of the respondents are willing to pay premiums of at least 0.11 euro per kg of food products for reductions in synthetic chemical use by at least 50% due to microbial applications. The amount of WTP increases with the level of reductions in synthetic chemical use. The majority of the respondents are promotion-oriented consumers in relation to their food involvement, and are more likely to pay premiums for the sustainably produced food products. Environmentally concerned consumers are also more likely to pay premiums, whereas health concerned consumers are not. This study contributes to understanding of consumers' attitude and perceived health risks towards foods obtained using microbial applications, and the heterogeneity of their preferences. Results provide insights for identifying potential buyers of foods produced using microbial applications, and to set prices according to the levels of consumers' WTP.

Altering product placement to create a healthier layout in supermarkets: Outcomes on store sales, customer purchasing, and diet in a prospective matched controlled cluster study.

BACKGROUND: Previous product placement trials in supermarkets are limited in scope and outcome data collected. This study assessed the effects on store-level sales, household-level purchasing, and dietary behaviours of a healthier supermarket layout. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a prospective matched controlled cluster trial with 2 intervention components: (i) new fresh fruit and vegetable sections near store entrances (replacing smaller displays at the back) and frozen vegetables repositioned to the entrance aisle, plus (ii) the removal of confectionery from checkouts and aisle ends opposite. In this pilot study, the intervention was implemented for 6 months in 3 discount supermarkets in England. Three control stores were matched on store sales and customer profiles and neighbourhood deprivation. Women customers aged 18 to 45 years, with loyalty cards, were assigned to the intervention (n = 62) or control group (n = 88) of their primary store. The trial registration number is NCT03518151. Interrupted time series analysis showed that increases in store-level sales of fruits and vegetables were greater in intervention stores than predicted at 3 (1.71 standard deviations (SDs) (95% CI 0.45, 2.96), P = 0.01) and 6 months follow-up (2.42 SDs (0.22, 4.62), P = 0.03), equivalent to approximately 6,170 and approximately 9,820 extra portions per store, per week, respectively. The proportion of purchasing fruits and vegetables per week rose among intervention participants at 3 and 6 months compared to control participants (0.2% versus -3.0%, P = 0.22; 1.7% versus -3.5%, P = 0.05, respectively). Store sales of confectionery were lower in intervention stores than predicted at 3 (-1.05 SDs (-1.98, -0.12), P = 0.03) and 6 months (-1.37 SDs (-2.95, 0.22), P = 0.09), equivalent to approximately 1,359 and approximately 1,575 fewer portions per store, per week, respectively; no differences were observed for confectionery purchasing. Changes in dietary variables were predominantly in the expected direction for health benefit. Intervention implementation was not within control of the research team, and stores could not be randomised. It is a pilot study, and, therefore, not powered to detect an effect. CONCLUSIONS: Healthier supermarket layouts can improve the nutrition profile of store sales and likely improve household purchasing and dietary quality. Placing fruits and vegetables near store entrances should be considered alongside policies to limit prominent placement of unhealthy foods. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03518151 (pre-results).

Regulation and Consumer Interest in an Antioxidant-Enriched Ham Associated with Reduced Colorectal Cancer Risks.

An economic experiment was conducted in France in 2020 to evaluate consumer attitudes toward two ham products associated with different colorectal cancer risks. We focused specifically on comparing a conventional ham and a new hypothetical antioxidant-enriched ham with a reduced risk of provoking colorectal cancer. Study participants were given descriptions of the two hams before carrying out successive rounds of willingness-to-pay (WTP) assessments. The results show that WTP was higher for the antioxidant-enriched ham than for the conventional ham. WTP estimates were also impacted by providing additional information about the reduction in colorectal cancer risk associated with the antioxidant-enriched ham. Based on the participants' WTP, we came up with ex ante estimates for the social impacts of introducing the antioxidant-enriched ham onto the market, and we suggest that it would be socially optimal to promote the product. Competition arising from pre-existing product labelling and marketing assertions could greatly limit the market potential of antioxidant-enriched ham, which suggests that alternative approaches may be necessary, such as regulations mandating antioxidant enrichment. These results also concern all countries with high levels of meat consumption.

The impact of COVID-19 on trips to urban amenities: Examining travel behavior changes in Somerville, MA.

While there has been much speculation on how the pandemic has affected work location patterns and home location choices, there is sparse evidence regarding the impacts that COVID-19 has had on amenity visits in American cities, which typically constitute over half of all urban trips. Using aggregate app-based GPS positioning data from smartphone users, this study traces the changes in amenity visits in Somerville, MA from January 2019 to December 2020, describing how visits to particular types of amenities have changed as a result of business closures during the public health emergency. Has the pandemic fundamentally shifted amenity-oriented travel behavior or is consumer behavior returning to pre-pandemic trends? To address this question, we calibrate discrete choice models that are suited to Census block-group level analysis for each of the 24 months in a two-year period, and use them to analyze how visitors' behavioral responses to various attributes of amenity clusters have shifted during different phases of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that in the first few months of the pandemic, amenity-visiting preferences significantly diverged from expected patterns. Even though overall trip volumes remained far below normal levels throughout the remainder of the year, preferences towards specific cluster attributes mostly returned to expected levels by September 2020. We also construct two scenarios to explore the implications of another shutdown and a full reopening, based on November 2020 consumer behavior. While government restrictions have played an important role in reducing visits to amenity clusters, our results imply that cautionary consumer behavior has played an important role as well, suggesting a likely long and slow path to economic recovery. By drawing on mobile phone location data and behavioral modeling, this paper offers timely insights to help decision-makers understand how this unprecedented health emergency is affecting amenity-related trips and where the greatest needs for intervention and support may exist.

A randomised experiment of health, cost and social norm message frames to encourage acceptance of swaps in a simulation online supermarket.

Offering lower-energy food swaps to customers of online supermarkets could help to decrease energy (kcal) purchased and consumed. However, acceptance rates of such food swaps tend to be low. This study aimed to see whether framing lower-energy food swaps in terms of cost savings or social norms could improve likelihood of acceptance relative to framing swaps in terms of health benefits. Participants (n = 900) were asked to shop from a 12-item shopping list in a simulation online supermarket. When a target high-energy food was identified in the shopping basket at check-out, one or two lower-energy foods would be suggested as an alternative (a "swap"). Participants were randomised to only see messages emphasising health benefits (fewer calories), cost benefits (lower price) or social norms (others preferred this product). Data were analysed for 713 participants after exclusions. Participants were offered a mean of 3.17 swaps (SD = 1.50), and 12.91% of swaps were accepted (health = 14.31%, cost = 11.49%, social norms = 13.18%). Swap acceptance was not influenced by the specific swap frame used (all p > .170). Age was significantly and positively associated with swap acceptance (b = 0.02, SE = 0.00, p < .001), but was also associated with smaller decreases in energy change (b = 0.46, SE = .19, p = .014). Overall, offering swaps reduced both energy (kcal) per product (b = -9.69, SE = 4.07, p = .017) and energy (kcal) per shopping basket (t712 = 11.09, p < .001) from pre- to post-intervention. Offering lower-energy food swaps could be a successful strategy for reducing energy purchased by customers of online supermarkets. Future research should explore alternative solutions for increasing acceptance rates of such swaps.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Rural Food Supply and Demand in Australia: Utilising Group Model Building to Identify Retailer and Customer Perspectives.

Prior to the 2020 outbreak of COVID-19, 70% of Australians' food purchases were from supermarkets. Rural communities experience challenges accessing healthy food, which drives health inequalities. This study explores the impact of COVID-19 on food supply and purchasing behaviour in a rural supermarket. Group model building workshops explored food supply experiences during COVID-19 in a rural Australian community with one supermarket. We asked three supermarket retailers "What are the current drivers of food supply into this supermarket environment?" and, separately, 33 customers: "What are the current drivers of purchases in this supermarket environment?" Causal loop diagrams were co-created with participants in real time with themes drawn afterwards from coded transcripts. Retailers' experience of COVID-19 included 'empty shelves' attributed to media and government messaging, product unavailability, and community fear. Customers reported fear of contracting COVID-19, unavailability of food, and government restrictions resulting in cooking more meals at home, as influences on purchasing behaviour. Supermarket management and customers demonstrated adaptability and resilience to normalise demand and combat reduced supply.

Pandemic buying: Testing a psychological model of over-purchasing and panic buying using data from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The over-purchasing and hoarding of necessities is a common response to crises, especially in developed economies where there is normally an expectation of plentiful supply. This behaviour was observed internationally during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the absence of actual scarcity, this behaviour can be described as 'panic buying' and can lead to temporary shortages. However, there have been few psychological studies of this phenomenon. Here we propose a psychological model of over-purchasing informed by animal foraging theory and make predictions about variables that predict over-purchasing by either exacerbating or mitigating the anticipation of future scarcity. These variables include additional scarcity cues (e.g. loss of income), distress (e.g. depression), psychological factors that draw attention to these cues (e.g. neuroticism) or to reassuring messages (eg. analytical reasoning) or which facilitate over-purchasing (e.g. income). We tested our model in parallel nationally representative internet surveys of the adult general population conducted in the United Kingdom (UK: N = 2025) and the Republic of Ireland (RoI: N = 1041) 52 and 31 days after the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 were detected in the UK and RoI, respectively. About three quarters of participants reported minimal over-purchasing. There was more over-purchasing in RoI vs UK and in urban vs rural areas. When over-purchasing occurred, in both countries it was observed across a wide range of product categories and was accounted for by a single latent factor. It was positively predicted by household income, the presence of children at home, psychological distress (depression, death anxiety), threat sensitivity (right wing authoritarianism) and mistrust of others (paranoia). Analytic reasoning ability had an inhibitory effect. Predictor variables accounted for 36% and 34% of the variance in over-purchasing in the UK and RoI respectively. With some caveats, the data supported our model and points to strategies to mitigate over-purchasing in future crises.

To buy or not buy food online: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the adoption of e-commerce in China.

Drawing on a recent online survey combined with city-level data, this paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 on consumers' online food purchase behavior in the short term. To address the potential endogeneity issues, we adopt an instrumental variable (IV) strategy, using the distance from the surveyed city to Wuhan as the instrumental variable. We show that our IV method is effective in minimizing potential bias. It is found that the share of confirmed COVID-19 cases increases the possibility of consumers purchasing food online. This is more likely to be the case for young people having a lower perceived risk of online purchases and living in large cities. Despite some limitations, this paper has policy implications for China and other countries that have been influenced by the COVID-19 epidemic. Specifically, government support and regulation should focus on (i) ensuring the safety of food sold on the internet, (ii) protecting the carrier from becoming infected, and (iii) providing financial support to the poor since they may have difficulties in obtaining access to food living in small cities. Moreover, how to help those who are unable to purchase food online because of their technical skills (e.g., the elderly who are not familiar with smart phones or the internet) also deserves more attention for the government and the public.

Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia.

This paper uses real-time transaction data from a large bank in Scandinavia to estimate the effect of social distancing laws on consumer spending in the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The analysis exploits a natural experiment to disentangle the effects of the virus and the laws aiming to contain it: Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate that aggregate spending dropped by around 25% (95% CI: 24 to 26%) in Sweden and, as a result of the shutdown, by 4 additional percentage points (95% CI: 3 to 5 percentage points [p.p.]) in Denmark. This suggests that most of the economic contraction is caused by the virus itself and occurs regardless of social distancing laws. The age gradient in the estimates suggests that social distancing reinforces the virus-induced drop in spending for low-health-risk individuals but attenuates it for high-risk individuals by lowering the overall prevalence of the virus in the society.

Older adults' strategies for obtaining medication refills in hypothetical scenarios in the face of COVID-19 risk.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether older adults would avoid going to the pharmacy (e.g., by restricting medications or requesting delivery) due to the risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Our secondary objectives were to determine the types of medications that the older adults are more likely to restrict and to determine the factors that influence these decisions. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey experiment in which participants read 6 scenarios, each stating that they had a 3-day supply of a particular medication remaining. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: National Web-based survey distributed to 1457 U.S. adults aged 65 years and older by Dynata from March 25, 2020, to April 1, 2020. OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants reported whether they would go to a pharmacy, have a medication delivered, or restrict the use of each medication. They reported their perceptions and experiences with COVID-19, health risk factors, preferences for more or less care (medical maximizer-minimizer), medication attitudes (beliefs about medicines questionnaire), health literacy, prescription insurance status, and demographics. RESULTS: Most participants (84%) were told to shelter in place, but only 12% reported attempting to obtain extra medications. Participants most often reported that they would go to the pharmacy to obtain each medication (ranging from tramadol 48.9% to insulin 64.9%) except for zolpidem, which they were most likely to restrict (45.4%). Participants who reported comorbidities that increased their risk of COVID-19 were just as likely to go to the pharmacy as those without. In multinomial logistic regression analyses, women and the oldest participants were more likely to seek delivery of medications. Restricting medications was most common for 2 symptom-focused medications (tramadol and zolpidem), and both demographic factors (e.g., gender) and beliefs (e.g., medical maximizing-minimizing preferences) were associated with such decisions. CONCLUSION: Many older adults intend to continue to go to the pharmacy to obtain their medications during a pandemic, even those who have health conditions that further increase their risk for COVID-19.

Will Buying Follow Others Ease Their Threat of Death? An Analysis of Consumer Data during the Period of COVID-19 in China.

How to overcome informational conformity consumer behavior when faced with threats of death is a social problem in response to COVID-19. This research is based on the terror management theory, the need to belong theory and the materialism theory. It uses a theoretical model to determine the relationships between threats of death and informational conformity consumer behavior. From 1453 samples collected during outbreak of COVID-19 in China, we used a structural equation model to test multiple research hypotheses. The result shows that threats of death are positively associated with a need to belong, materialism and informational conformity consumer behavior. The need to belong and materialism can play a mediating role between threats of death and information conformity consumption behavior, and perceived social support can play a moderating role between threats of death and information conformity consumption behavior.